Liberalization and Authoritarian Rollback as Responses of the Central Government to a Crisis of Local Elite Loyalty

Introduction. The article explores the conditions under which the central government prefers either liberalization or authoritarian rollback as responses to socio-political instability, particularly to low levels of loyalty among national (local) elites. The key variable linking both liberalization and authoritarian rollback is the degree of coercion and violence employed by the central authority against regime opponents.

Methodology and sources. The study is based on a comparative analysis of contrasting cases of liberalization and authoritarian rollback drawn from Russian history spanning the 17th to the late 20th centuries.

Results and discussion. When the social and cultural distance between regime opponents and various societal groups – both domestic and foreign – is relatively high, and the resources of insurgents can be confiscated or neutralized, the government tends to respond to socio-political instability through authoritarian rollback. Conversely, when this distance is relatively low and the resources of insurgents are dispersed, the state is compelled to compromise and make concessions to certain actors and groups among the (potential) opponents of the regime. This leads to a phase of liberalization that results in the fragmentation of the opposition. As internal contradictions within the opposition intensify, the state resorts to the targeted suppression of its most uncompromising adversaries, including the rollback of rights and powers previously granted to the beneficiaries of liberalization.

Conclusion. The central government's choice between liberalization and authoritarian backsliding in response to socio-political crises in the periphery is driven by the need to maintain a relatively high levels of elite loyalty and depends on the nature and structure of the regime opponents’ resources. 

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