World-Systems Ground of Terrorist Threats: on the Issue of Methodology for Studying Armed Conflicts in the Post-Soviet Space

   Introduction. The purpose of the article is to systematize the world-system prerequisites for terrorist threats, to show the place of terrorism within the theoretical structures of the movement of capital in the world-system and the maturation of contradictions in the functioning of its cycle.

   Methodology and sources. The authors use the “Figure-ground movement” method proposed by T. K. Hopkins and consider the world-system as a background for the study of terrorism. Refocusing perception makes it possible to more clearly see the connections between terrorism and the world-system. The geopolitical concept of R. Collins and M. Crenshaw’s concept of the development of terrorist organizations are used as theoretical foundations in addition to the world-system approach.

   Results and discussion. A series of successive refocuses were carried out to identify the connections between terrorism and the contradictions of the capitalist world-system. As a result, it was shown that the hegemon and the core states achieve success by maintaining a «civilized» order in the world-system by declaring the values of centrist liberalism. However, it must be recognized that states often use less expensive than the introduction of regular troops, but illegitimate means of terror to protect their interests. Terror can be used in the struggle for power when core states include their economies in a network of cumulative vectors. A number of prerequisites were discovered after a refocus from terrorism to the movement of capital in the world-system cycle. The movement of capital from the core to the periphery increases social inequality and causes the growth of national and ethnic differences that can feed separatist ideologies of terrorism. The outflow of capital from the economies of non-core areas increases the ability of the political force that has challenged the hegemon and the core states to mobilize the population under anti-system slogans that can fuel international terrorism. Based on the obtained theoretical models, the prerequisites for terrorist activity on the territory of the USSR and in the post-Soviet space were briefly described.

   Conclusion. The authors emphasize that the resulting theoretical models require additional verification. The next stage in the study of the causes of terrorism should be an analysis of the mechanisms of formation of terrorist organizations based on specific cases.

1. Wallerstein, I. (2006), World-System analysis: Introductions, Transl. by Tyukina, N., Moscow, Territoriya budushchego, RUS.

2. Hopkins, T.K. (1982), “World-Systems Analysis: Methodological Issues”, World-Systems Analysis: Theory and Methodology, Hopkins, T.K. and Wallerstein, I. (eds.), Sage, Beverly Hills, USA, pp. 145–158.

3. Collins, R. (2015), Macrohistory: Essays in Sociology of the Long Run, Transl. by Rozov, N.S., Moscow, URSS: LENAND, RUS.

4. Izgarskaya, A.A. and Lukyanov, N.E. (2021), “Terrorism in the Modern World-System: Towards the Problem of Prospects for Interdisciplinary Research”, DISCOURSE, vol. 7, no 6, pp. 5–16. DOI: 10.32603/2412-8562-2021-7-6-5-16.

5. Crenshaw, M. (1981), “The Causes of Terrorism”, Comparative Politics, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 379–399. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/421717.

6. Crenshaw, M. (1987), “Theories of Terrorism: Instrumental and Organizational Approaches”, J. of Strategic Studies, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 13–31. DOI: 10.1080/01402398708437313.

7. Crenshaw, M. (2009), “Intimations of Mortality or Production Lines? The Puzzle of "Suicide Terrorism"”, Political Psychology, vol. 30, iss. 3, pp. 359–364. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9221.2009.00699.x.

8. Crenshaw, M. (2014), “Terrorism Research: The Record”, International Interactions, vol. 40, iss. 4, pp. 556–567. DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2014.902817.

9. Silke, A. (1996), “Terrorism and the Blind Men's Elephant”, Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 8, iss. 3, pp. 12–28. DOI: 10.1080/09546559608427361.

10. Silke, A. and Schmidt-Petersen, J. (2017), “The golden age? What the 100 Most Cited Articles in Terrorism Studies Tell Us”, Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 29, iss. 4, pp. 692–712. DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2015.1064397.

11. Schelling, T.C. (1966), Arms and Influence, Yale Univ. Press, New Haven, USA.

12. Schmid, A. (2005), “Root Causes of Terrorism: Some Conceptual Notes, a Set of Indicators, and a Model”, Democracy and Security, vol. 1, iss. 2, pp. 127–136. DOI: 10.1080/17419160500321139.

13. Schmid, A. (1992), “The Response Problem as a Definition Problem”, Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 4, iss. 4, pp. 7–13. DOI: 10.1080/09546559208427172.

14. McQuade, B. and Schrader, S. (2023), “Avoiding the Security Trap. The Contributions of Terence Hopkins and World-Systems as Methodology for Critical Police Studies”, World-Systems Analysis at a Critical Juncture, Payne, C.R., Korzeniewicz, R.P. and Silver, B.J. (eds.), Routledge, NY, USA, pp. 17–27. DOI: 10.4324/9781003325109-3.

15. Mann, M. (2023), The Dark Side of Democracy, Transl. and ed. by Malakhova, V., Dyukova, A. and Karamaeva, S., Piter, SPb., RUS.

16. Izgarskaya, A.A. (2022), “Dynamics of Political Hegemony in the Cycles of the Modern World-System”, Respublica Literaria, vol. 3, no 3, pp. 96–105. DOI: 10.47850/RL.2022.3.3.96-105.

17. Bergesen, A.J. and Bata, M. (2002), “Global and National Inequality: Are They Connected?”, J. of World-Systems Research, vol. 8, iss. 1, pp. 130–142. DOI: 10.5195/jwsr.2002.277.

18. “Global Terrorism Index”, Vision of Humanity, available at: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/maps/global-terrorism-index/#/ (date of access: 01. 06. 2024).

19. “In terms of social inequality Belarus is located between Norway and Belgium (2020), IA Realist, 24. 08. 2020, available at: https://realtribune.ru/news-news-4940/ (accessed 02. 07. 2024).

20. Arrighi, G. (1990), “The Developmentalist Illusion: A Reconceptualization of the Semiperiphery”, Semiperipheral States in the World-Economy, Martin, W.G. and Wallerstein, I. (eds.), Greenwood Press, NY, USA, pp. 11–44.

21. Lukyanov, N.E. and Izgarskaya, A.A. (2023), “Modern Anti-System Terrorism and Pro-System Mass Media in the Structure of Social Ontology”, Respublica Literaria, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 103–116. DOI: 10.47850/RL.2023.4.1.103-116.